Picking Longshots

Uncle Clyde inspired this handicapping guide

A big part of the fun of going to the horse races is picking the winners. The exhilaration of rooting for the horse that wins combined with the ego boost of seeing how much a winning ticket is worth works well to put steam in a bettor’s stride. If the payout to the winning bettors turns out to be a large sum of money, then that is even better. Longtime horse race handicappers continually search for ways to find winning longshots, because even though the favorite wins one-third of the time, betting on them takes very little skill and leaves two-thirds of the winners on the table. Here are some interesting things to look for that can often produce winning longshots.

The Hidden Entry

Usually when a trainer enters more than one horse in a race, those horses are coupled for betting. That means that a bet on the number 1 is actually a bet on the 1 and the 1a, and that often lowers the odds because bettors get two chances to win for the price of one. Sometimes, though, trainers are allowed to enter more than one horse in a race without coupling them in the betting. This “hidden entry” provides handicappers looking for a longshot an opportunity. Quite often the higher odds horse of a hidden entry actually ends up the winner. Savvy handicappers watch for this situation and make sure to bet the higher odds horse.

The Short Field Longshot

Sometimes a race fails to attract many entries and ends up with only five horses. In this case the sharp bettors back the longest shot on the board because it only has to beat four other horses or even fewer if the field is shorter. Stay away from this strategy if the race has six or more entries. This play works best with stakes races.

Trainer Moves

Racing publications provide more than just the horses’ performances in past races. They also provide the statistics of the moves the trainers are making. If the horse is running on turf for the first time, or is wearing blinkers for the first time, or any other angles of about twenty are apparent, then the publication provides information about how those moves have worked for the trainer in the past. Longtime handicappers look for a high percentage of success (over thirty) combined with a long history of making the move.

Picking winners is fun, but picking winning longshots is even more fun. If your day at the races has become a losing streak, try one of the above plays and your luck just might change.

3 Comments

  1. H R PAI
    Posted June 23, 2008 at 1:19 am | Permalink

    Thanks to uncle clyde for valuable guidance. But to apply these in the right race, how to identify an outsider race from the days card,please help.

  2. Posted July 29, 2008 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    When do you think that your horses are going to win? You horses that you choose are never in the wining circle. I check your web page daily and i compare my horses with your choices and mine are better. Give me better choices on horses. I hope that in your next pic you make the right choices.
    P.S: i hope that i hear from you again (have a nice day)

  3. Jason
    Posted August 10, 2008 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Just a quick thanks for the sky cape(#6) pick at Del Mar. Went off at
    12-1 and picked up $60 on a WPS simulcast bet. Anybody can bet the
    favorite, but the true value is with great overlooked horses. Thanks again.

Post a Comment

Your email is never published nor shared.

Horse Handicapping Physical Handicapping Speed Points Track Bias Picking Longshots