Big Brown presents an imposing obstacle to bettors looking to make a buck in the Preakness. The youngster has won four out of four starts, all of them laughers. He sports the best last Beyer and the best lifetime Beyer. Only one other entrant (Gayego) has a triple digit Beyer. Three other horses (Macho Again, Icabad Crane, and Hey Byrn) won last time out. Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow has the best WonLastStart statistic in that bunch, .32. Some say to watch out for the bounce, but would a Beyer bounce equal not winning? He’s got a ton of Beyer elbow room over this group, so a bounce could still easily be a win.
From where this writer sits, it will take a tragedy for Big Brown to lose. So now what? Mortgage the house and collect 5%? Horse racing overflows with sad stories of that idea not working out. Besides, from where this writer sits, winning favorites are boring, too. Frequent readers know that longshots rule the day on this blog. Here, it is all about cashing at big odds.
The expectation is that the whole world and their dog will bet the Big Brown to All exacta, hoping for a longshot. A $2.00 exacta wheel will cost $22.00, and since everyone has it, it will not pay that much. That makes it a sure to lose bet.
For this race, it says here that the play is to go deeper in the exotics and bet the trifecta and superfecta. Icabad Crane is the lone horse for course. Kentucky Bear is the Uncle Clyde system horse. And Hey Byrn’s trainer has the best GrdStk payoff. Boxing those three under Big Brown costs six dollars each for the tri and super.
It would be sad if tragedy did strike Big Brown, and some readers may prefer to not think that way. But the idea as a bettor is to have the winning ticket, so this writer plans to also box those three in the exacta and trifecta and leave out Big Brown.
That’s $24.00 total. Good luck!
