“I know there’s no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it’s a mismatch to me on paper.” – Rick Dutrow
Over the years, I have often wished someone would tell me who would win the Kentucky Derby. Now here comes Big Brown’s trainer doing just that, and I do not want to believe him. He does have street cred, though, coming from his score with St. Liam in the BC Classic. Even so, I will not bet on Big Brown this Saturday.
For one thing, I try to avoid betting favorites, especially in the Derby. They just do not pay, and I do not like being like everyone else in the crowd. I play the horses because I want to prove I am smarter than everyone else.
Some may say that means I need professional help, and they may be right.
Big Brown has two other big knocks: A three race past performance and a Derby rookie trainer. That is a serious lack of seasoning on both parts. I think Dutrow’s boast comes from his lack of Derby experience, and I believe that means he will make other mistakes as well. Big Brown’s light race schedule will keep him from concentrating on racing and keep him from the winner’s circle.
Over the years I have wished for a small Dual Qualifiers contingent. This year we have three, and I can not wait to box them. Exacta and Trifecta. They each get win bets as well and perhaps place bets. I do not like to hedge with place bets very often, because I believe it shows a lack of confidence, but this year I may make an exception. Readers wondering who the Dual Qualifiers are need not look elsewhere. They are Court Vision, Pyro, and Tale of Ekati.
Good luck to all on Derby Day, and remember that the under card pays for winners, too.
3 Comments
I agree that I might bet against Big Brown at short odds. I think the filly on paper looks alot like Winning Colors who won. And I think you’re right about the dual Qualifiers to place but not to win. Sincerely, Fred P.S. I’m probably all wrong but that’s the way I see it.
I remember Winning Colors wiring the Derby. What a nice girl! And that makes Eight Belles interesting to me, too. I’m still leaving her out, because she hasn’t tried a long race yet.
“Over the years, I have often wished someone would tell me who would win the Kentucky Derby. Now here comes Big Brown’s trainer doing just that, and I do not want to believe him.”